LONG-RANGE weather forecasts are a hazardous task at the best of times but increasingly the weather is taking on impulses born of human intervention. Our atmosphere is gradually changing which could be causing more intense rainfall and longer periods of mild weather.
However, our weather always has a trick or two up its sleeve with considerable changes from one year to another. For instance, the greatest blizzard of all time occurred in the severe winter of 1881 when, in Dorking, a snowstorm was said to be without parallel in the lives of the oldest people. The temperature had fallen to -18C (0F) before a snowstorm driven by hurricane force winds caused immense drifts. Yet the following winter was exceedingly calm and mild with vegetation very forward with little frost and no snow.
Or take 1911. This was a remarkable summer of sunshine, heat and drought. At Epsom the temperature reached 36.7C (98F) on August 9 and there was an unofficial reading of 38C (100F) at Emlyn Lane, Leatherhead. In Ashtead the temperature reached 27C (80F) on 43 days. The following summer was abysmal with the temperature not rising above 19C (66F) on the North Downs near Redhill during August and more than 150mm of rain at Warlingham.
The summer of 1921 was extremely dry with very few vegetables grown in the drought conditions. The year was the driest on record yet the following summer was anything but with July being cold, very wet and sunless. So extreme weather is not confined to recent times.
The 1684 winter was the coldest on record with the Thames frozen from December through to February. But just two years later occurred one of the mildest winters in our national weather records.
One could argue that extremes are these days coming thick and fast. For instance the warmest month of any for at least 350 years was July 2006 when 36.5C (98F) was measured near Leatherhead. Yet the following summer nationally was the wettest on record. Then April 2007 broke all records for warmth.
The remarkable deep snows of February 2009 – with places along the North Downs having 30cms to 40cms of snow in just 12 hours – and the bitter cold and deep snows of December 2010 were followed in April 2011 by even warmer weather than in 2007 and a blaze of heat in October, smashing the national record to start the month.
Yet February 2012 produced Surrey's lowest temperature, a numbing -18.3C in the Chipstead Valley. This was the lowest temperature in the UK that year, too.
The freezing cold spring of 2013 was followed by a blaze of heat in July and then by far the wettest winter both locally and nationally when parts of Surrey were under water for several months.
The year 2014 has also been extraordinary for the persistent warmth with every month bar August above par for temperature. It is likely that it will be confirmed as the warmest year in our national meteorological record.
I am sure 2015 will give us plenty to talk about and here is my long-range forecast with perhaps February and August providing the extremes.
After a chilly first few days when some frost and wintry showers are possible it will be around average for the first half of the month with weather systems like those in December coming in from the west bringing some rain at times. During the last week or so, pressure will rise and it will become frosty with eventually the wind coming in more from the east, bringing some snow showers for the east of England.
A contrast to last year. It may be quite wintry at times with a surge of east or north-east winds making East Surrey at risk from frequent snow showers and some sharp frosts, too, especially during the first half of the month. It could become milder in the latter part of the month but overall it will be drier than average unlike last year with all the floods.
Quite a mild month with some warm days mid-month that should raise soil temperatures. Drier than average, too. But beware late in the month, winds from the Arctic could give some sharp frosts that may catch out the unwary gardener.
An average month for temperature and rainfall. Watch out for some frost after the second week to the 22nd, but nothing too severe. Surrey should have some of the best of the UK's weather this month with rather wetter weather in the west and north. Sunshine about par, too.
It will be a case of "west is best" this month with Surrey not faring too well. It will be on the chilly side and rather cloudy and in any clearances at night some late frosts are possible. Not wet, though, with drying winds predominating from the north.
A continuation of the chilly weather but much wetter with the south of Britain including Surrey having the most rain with some places double the average with some heavy, thundery, outbreaks. Not much cheer in sunshine amounts either with cloudy conditions prevailing. Warming up somewhat during the last week to give something to write home about for holiday-makers.
A much better month with the temperature a degree or so above average, sunshine above par too with sunshine totals around 10 to 20 per cent above par. The temperature should reach 27C (80F) on some days.
Rainfall will be heaviest in the south, though, with some potent thunderstorms in places, but overall quite a pleasant month.
All that chilly weather in May and June will be forgotten as it looks a warm and sunny month. Yes, summer really will arrive in all its glory. The temperature will reach 28C to 29C (82 to 84F) on quite a few days.
A fine warm first week or two with some high temperatures – up to 30C (86F) in places – so still some good weather for a late holiday but not so fine in the second half of the month. So head north to Scotland and Northern Ireland for a continuation of the fine weather.
Overall, very dry in the far north of the UK and average in Surrey.
Rather cool with a westerly flow giving most of the rain in the west and the driest weather in the south east so Surrey will be favoured. Very windy mid-month giving the first real gales of the season and cool weather in its wake could give an early frost. Then a warm spell during the last week with southerly winds could raise the temperature to 20C (68F) or more in Surrey.
An average month for temperature and rainfall but rather dull and this may prevent frost at night. The second half of the month will be the driest.
The first half will be dry and sunny but quite frosty at night especially over England and Wales. Then milder but more unsettled weather will be experienced in the second half which means a green Christmas. Overall around average for temperature but much drier than normal in Surrey and it will be a very sunny month.
Overall the year looks set to be much drier than 2014.
Ian Currie has been observing weather for more than 50 years and is editor of Weather eye magazine. Go to www.frostedearth.com for more details
